The most adaptable species will survive

Ned Taleb
3 min readNov 21, 2020

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Those that know me well have likely heard me quote Darwin’s Theory: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent; it is the one most adaptable to change.” This quote is one of my guiding principles in life, and I think about it often.

This year’s pandemic is something that possibly happens once in a lifetime, and is a great measure for discerning which species are adaptable.

Today, I choose not to tell the story of Elon Musk, nor Bill Gates, nor Warren Buffett; instead, I choose to tell the story of a small entrepreneur, a coffee shop owner named Frederico (otherwise known as Fede). His small coffee shop sits in Madrid’s touristic old city center and remains open, despite only nine million tourists compared to an average of 80 million visiting Spain this year.

The brand is Acid, which has survived thanks to its diehard community that truly believes in specialty coffee (otherwise referred to as 3rd wave, or casually as 4th wave). Other specialty coffee shops like Waycup or Incaffeine have closed permanently, unfortunately. Surviving is, by itself, a major accomplishment.

Specialty coffee shops serve exclusive coffee beans from Salvador, Ethiopia, Kenya, etc., lightly roasted at top roasters in order to maintain the authenticity of flavor. They do not use blends, out of respect for the farmers. Milk is served lukewarm, micro foam (no dry foam).

When the Pandemic hit, Fede built an online business in record speed: www.acidcafe.es. When I ordered coffee beans, it only took 10 to 15 seconds to checkout with PayPal, and the goods were delivered via a delivery company the next day.

Right before the pandemic hit, Fede had traveled to Salvador to meet farmers such as Gilberto Baraona, owner of the world renowned Los Pirineos farm. Gilberto tragically passed away a month later from Covid despite being in his 60s. Fede also traveled to Copenhagen, Denmark, despite travel restrictions, to keep services moving and to meet with his supplier, La Cabra, one of the best coffee roasters in the world.

Fede asked me about investing. I questioned him, “What would you use the money for?” He responded, “To open another location.” At first, I thought he was joking. But, he plays by the Chinese wisdom, “There’s an opportunity in every crisis.”

I thought about it and noted that he had invested when the coffee business stock market was at its lowest. And so, he was able to snap up another location at a super discounted price, and signed a multi-year lease along with some equipment for free thanks to the variety of choices from other restaurants and coffee shops going out of business. The additional space allowed him to launch this month ACID BAKEHOUSE.

I don’t know what the future holds for Fede, but today, there’s more hope than ever that 2021 could see a return to normality. Fede is a highly adaptable species who is emerging stronger from the pandemic with less competition, two coffee shops and an active online business.

Fede at Acid Cafe

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Ned Taleb
Ned Taleb

Written by Ned Taleb

Serial Entrepreneur (Nexius, B.Yond…). E&Y entrepreneur of the year. Angel Investor. Guitarist. Opera singer. #nedtaleb #entrepreneur #founder

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